PEAK OIL AND THE NORTH-SOUTH BYPASS TUNNEL

The North-South Bypass Tunnel is a $3 billion gamble on petrol prices remaining low in the years to come, but the project’s feasibility study ignored the impact of peak oil. Following are extracts from Maunsell, Brisbane City Council, Queensland Government and Commonwealth Government reports that highlight the serious investment risks inherent in the NSBT. The message for investors is clear – get out while you can!

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Traffic volumes in the North–South Bypass Tunnel will be affected, directly and indirectly, by numerous factors, many of them external and unable to be controlled or predicted by the traffic forecaster. Examples include … additional roadway alternatives not anticipated or expected at the time the Report was prepared, the pace, nature and locations of population, employment and economic growth (or decline) in Brisbane, the quality and proximity of alternative roads and other transport infrastructure, … and fuel prices.

Maunsell Australia/RiverCity Motorway, Product Disclosure Statement, 13 June 2006

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On March 12, 2007, Brisbane City Council’s Climate Change and Energy Taskforce submitted its report ‘A Call for Action’ to Civic Cabinet. The report surveyed the challenges that Brisbane would face as a result of climate change and peak oil, and in cutting greenhouse gas emissions. Maunsell Principal Consultant – Sustainability, Scott Losee, was a member of the four person taskforce, with Maunsell commissioned to write the final report for the Taskforce. This appointment recognised Maunsell’s cutting-edge capability in advising clients on the implications of these global issues for their organisations.

Maunsell Australia, Media Release: Maunsell Guides Brisbane in Facing-up to Climate Change and Peak Oil, March 2007

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The most direct change (arising from peak oil) will be the increase in price for petrol and diesel – petrol being the current dominant source of energy for people movement, and diesel being the dominant fuel for freight movement. Fluctuations in fuel price will continue, but the long-term trend will be upwards.

We have been aware for many years of the need to shift more of our trips to modes other than private vehicles (especially those occupied only by the driver). … the Brisbane 2026 Vision goal is for 41 per cent of morning peak trips to be made by walking, cycling or public transport by 2026. …People’s past reluctance to take more trips by public transport might change rapidly in the face of escalating oil prices or fuel rationing.

…the Taskforce considers that half of all passenger movements should by made by public transport in the long term. To take this goal seriously, Council, together with the State and Federal governments, must invest heavily and quickly in high quality public transport. Facilities must be available before demand, not just in response to increased pressure from passengers.

Maunsell Australia/Brisbane City Council, Climate Change and Energy Taskforce Report, 12 March 2007

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… world oil production will peak within the next 10 years. It is noted that Australian oil production has already peaked, as has that of the rest of the world, excluding the former Soviet Union and some Middle East OPEC members.

… Queensland’s vulnerability to peaking of world oil supplies, and to world supply disruptions, is particularly acute given our oil supply and demand trends, as well as our regionally distributed population and industrial base.

Queensland has a significant oil dependency, most prevalent in the transport sector. While improved fuel quality and vehicle efficiency has decreased overall liquid fuel consumption per vehicle, Queensland’s total liquid fuel consumption has continued to increase. Hence addressing this dependency will involve reducing oil consumption by substituting into alternative fuels and vehicle technologies, and increased use of public transport.

Emerging liquid fuel constraints brought on by peak oil means that we must now consider
encouraging change in the layout and design of our cities and in the behaviour patterns of society. From now and over the coming decades, government will need to take a much more proactive role in managing the decline of oil, energy management focussing on the major challenges of rising user demands and energy security, and addressing the related issue of climate change. This process needs to begin immediately, if large scale social dislocation is to be avoided or at least minimised. The costs of preparing too soon will be infinitesimal compared to the costs of reacting too late.

Queensland Government, Queensland’s Vulnerability to Rising Oil Prices, 5 April 2007

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In view of the enormous changes that will be needed to move to a less oil dependent future, Australia should be planning for it (peak oil) now.

Commonwealth Government, Australia’s Future Oil Supply and Alternative Transport Fuels, 7 February 2007